COVID-19 Model Projections

This page contains graphs with the latest COVID-19 projections for the US from the "Data Trend Model". Previous predictions can be downloaded from Github.

Last model run

  November 1, 2020 with Johns Hopkins Data from 10/31/2020.
  • Predicted daily deaths on 12/25/2020: 2,928  (~ 90,000 per month) 
  • Predicted daily cases on 12/25/2020: 166,283
  • Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths predicted by 1/20/2021: 424,579
  • Total predicted cases by 1/20/2021: 21,389,075


Compared to the last model run 10 days ago, all predicted numbers have increased significantly. Th now stands at more than 424,000.

In this run, the model assumes that any future growth in case numbers is limited to 21 days. This number currently seems more reasonable than the 14-day limit used in previous model runs, since there is a growing reluctance to issue or adhere to new restrictions. Even with the 21-day limit, the picture painted by the graphs below may well be too optimistic, as both the president and governors have stated that US citizens should just "learn to live with COVID-19", and that no new restrictions will be imposed.

The total number of predicted confirmed COVID-19 deaths on January 20, 2021, when the next president of the USA will be inaugurated, is predicted to exceed 424,000. A recent report from the CDC has shown that the official COVID-19 death numbers understate the actual number of deaths linked to COVID-19 substantially. For the period until October 3, 2020, the actual number of excess deaths was about 50% higher than the number of death certificates that listed COVID-19 as a cause of death. Under the assumption that this ratio will remain the same over the next 3 months, there will be a total of 212,000 excess deaths that will not be officially attributed to COVID-19. 

This means that when president Trumps current term ends, more than half a million people in the US will have died due to the COVID-19 epidemic. These are additional deaths, above the number of deaths that would have been expected without COVID-19 - or if the US government had launched an effective response to the epidemic like many other countries have done.