Here is what the transcript on the Guardian web site wrote about it:
In contrast, the US has managed to drop new infections from about 35,000 per day down to about 30,000. Hmm. Let's look at a computer model of what may happen:
Anyway, there's only a little blip around day 114, but numbers are still lower than 2 weeks ago. So on to phase 2! At this point, even the skeptics start relaxing, and live slowly goes back to normal.
But a lot of people still have COVID-19 infections, and many of them do not know it because they have no or light symptoms. So the transmissions go up again. For the model run, I assume they go up to 3.0. That's actually a lot less than we had a few weeks ago, when R exceeded 5.0.
Due to all the delays, we will not see any increase in new cases until about day 126. But then, numbers go up very quickly. For the sake of argument, we'll assume that the reaction this time around will be quick, and that on day 135, we'll all be under stay-at-home orders again, and stick to them as well as now. Do what's the effect? Check this graph:
This is just an illustration of what could happen. Actual numbers will differ, but it will most certainly be much worse than most people think - largely because of the "hidden growth" and the delays before we the alarms start going off.
So here is what re-opening guidelines should look like:
- The number of new cases must have fallen substantially and consistently. That probably means to at most one tenths or perhaps one fifths of the maximum number.
- Test and track system must be in place to enable full contact tracing and repeated testing. Testing just once has a high false-negative rate if is done on the wrong day after infection. Antibody tests do not help much here, since the antibody response only starts after symptoms appear.
This is important and big. China had more than 1,000 teams of 5 or more people dedicated to tracking in Wuhan.
All positive cases must be isolated in a way that can be controlled.
- Relaxations must be more gradual. Think of Austria's example above.
- Phases must be separated by enough time to make sure that any uptick in infections is caught before going to the next phase. Right now, the typical reporting delay seems to be around 12 days. To reduce this, testing capacity must be expanded dramatically; turnaround times must be reduced to one day (or less); and testing must be done even with mild symptoms, or when someone was in contact with another infected person.
- Adequate protection equipment for medical workers and first responders must be available in sufficient quantities.
A real killer plan, that one.